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Africa energy outlook 2021.

African Energy Chamber

Authors

African Energy Chamber



Contributors

N.J. Ayuk
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Verner Ayukegba
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Mandisa Nduli
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Mickaël Vogel
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Amina Williams
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Giovanni Trevisson
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Paul Cheeseman
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Heidi Sparks
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Theophilus Acheampong
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Doris Agbevivi
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Geoffrey Mabea
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Rystad Energy
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Abstract

The global energy transition and decarbonization drive are putting pressure on oil demand while shale has unlocked abundant resources. The global context forces African petroleum producers to adapt or become uncompetitive. The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has accelerated this underlying pressure by causing unprecedented havoc on global energy markets that Africa is not insulated from. Conventional petroleum resources such as those in Africa should be competitive in the global supply stack, but above surface conditions related to fiscal regimes, carbon emissions and general difficulty of doing business are holding projects back. The CAPEX spending 2020-2021 outlook pre-COVID-19 was almost $90 billion for 2020 and 2021, but has been significantly reduced to about $60 billion due to project delays and cost cutting measures. The 2021 outlook therefore appears weak on new project sanctions, but relatively stronger for jobs and drilling markets on the back of ongoing projects initiated pre-COVID-19. The impact of COVID-19 on 2021 liquids production is however not so severe as the current 2021 outlook stands at about 7.6 million barrels per day compared to 8.2 million barrels per day in the beginning of the year. Outside COVID-19, regulatory matters have also unnecessarily delayed major projects in Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania that represent big opportunity losses for local content development, delayed job creation and further deteriorated Africa’s competitive position versus resources elsewhere.

Citation

African Energy Chamber. 2020. Africa energy outlook 2021. Johannesburg: African Energy Chamber [online]. Available from: https://www.whyafrica.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AEC-Outlook-2021.pdf

Report Type Technical Report
Online Publication Date Nov 2, 2020
Publication Date Nov 2, 2020
Deposit Date Apr 27, 2024
Publicly Available Date Dec 5, 2024
Publisher African Energy Chamber
Keywords Africa; Energy; Exploration; Production; Environment; Employment; Power
Public URL https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1712995
Publisher URL https://www.whyafrica.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AEC-Outlook-2021.pdf

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