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Multi-temporal analysis of past and future land cover change in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia.

Azari, Majid; Billa, Lawal; Chan, Andy


Majid Azari

Lawal Billa


This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model. The results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km2 (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km2 (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km2 (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km2 (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km2 (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km2 (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located. The future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.


AZARI, M., BILLA, L. and CHAN, A. 2022. Multi-temporal analysis of past and future land cover change in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. Ecological processes [online], 11, article number 2. Available from:

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Dec 2, 2021
Online Publication Date Jan 24, 2022
Publication Date Dec 31, 2022
Deposit Date Jun 30, 2023
Publicly Available Date Jul 6, 2023
Journal Ecological Processes
Electronic ISSN 2192-1709
Publisher Springer
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 11
Article Number 2
Keywords Land cover modelling; Land use and land cover; Land change modeller; Markov chain model; Selangor; Malaysia
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