Explainable weather forecasts through an LSTM-CBR twin system.

Pirie, Craig; Suresh, Malavika; Salimi, Pedram; Palihawadana, Chamath; Nanayakkara, Gayani

Abstract

In this paper, we explore two methods for explaining LSTM-based temperature forecasts using previous 14 day progressions of humidity and pressure. First, we propose and evaluate an LSTM-CBR twin system that generates nearest-neighbors that can be visualised as explanations. Second, we use feature attributions from Integrated Gradients to generate textual explanations that summarise the key progressions in the past 14 days that led to the predicted value.

Citation

PIRIE, C., SURESH, M., SALIMI, P., PALIHAWADANA, C. and NANAYAKKARA, G. 2022. Explainable weather forecasts through an LSTM-CBR twin system. In Reuss, P. and Schönborn, J. (eds.) ICCBR-WS 2022: proceedings of the 30th International conference on Case-based reasoning workshops 2022 (ICCBR-WS 2022) co-located with the 30th International conference on Case-based reasoning 2022 (ICCBR 2022), 12-15 September 2022, Nancy, France. Aachen: CEUR workshop proceedings [online], 3389, pages 256-260. Available from: https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3389/ICCBR_2022_XCBR_Challenge_RGU.pdf

• Conference Name: 30th International conference on Case-based reasoning workshops 2022 (ICCBR-WS 2022) co-located with the 30th International conference on Case-based reasoning 2022 (ICCBR 2022)
• Conference Location: Nancy, France
• Start Date: Sep 12, 2022
• End Date: Sep 15, 2022
• Acceptance Date: Jul 22, 2022
• Online Publication Date: May 11, 2023
• Publication Date: May 11, 2023
• Deposit Date: Jun 2, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 2, 2023
• Publisher: CEUR Workshop Proceedings
• Volume: 3389
• Pages: 256-260
• Series ISSN: 1613-0073
• Book Title: ICCBR-WS 2022: proceedings of the 30th International conference on Case-based reasoning workshops 2022 (ICCBR-WS 2022) co-located with the 30th International conference on Case-based reasoning 2022 (ICCBR 2022)
• Keywords: LSTM; XCBR; NLG; Integrated gradients; Forecasting; Visualisation
• Public URL: https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1977757
• Publisher URL: https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3389/ICCBR_2022_XCBR_Challenge_RGU.pdf