Mr Craig Pirie c.pirie11@rgu.ac.uk
Research Assistant
Explainable weather forecasts through an LSTM-CBR twin system.
Pirie, Craig; Suresh, Malavika; Salimi, Pedram; Palihawadana, Chamath; Nanayakkara, Gayani
Authors
MALAVIKA SURESH m.suresh@rgu.ac.uk
Research Student
PEDRAM SALIMI p.salimi@rgu.ac.uk
Research Student
Mr Chamath Palihawadana c.palihawadana@rgu.ac.uk
Research Assistant
Ms GAYANI NANAYAKKARA g.nanayakkara@rgu.ac.uk
Research Student
Contributors
Pascal Reuss
Editor
Jakob Schönborn
Editor
Abstract
In this paper, we explore two methods for explaining LSTM-based temperature forecasts using previous 14 day progressions of humidity and pressure. First, we propose and evaluate an LSTM-CBR twin system that generates nearest-neighbors that can be visualised as explanations. Second, we use feature attributions from Integrated Gradients to generate textual explanations that summarise the key progressions in the past 14 days that led to the predicted value.
Citation
PIRIE, C., SURESH, M., SALIMI, P., PALIHAWADANA, C. and NANAYAKKARA, G. 2022. Explainable weather forecasts through an LSTM-CBR twin system. In Reuss, P. and Schönborn, J. (eds.) Workshop proceedings of the 30th International conference on case-based reasoning (ICCBR-WS 2022), 12-15 September 2022, Nancy, France. CEUR workshop proceedings, 3389. Aachen: CEUR-WS [online], pages 256-260. Available from: https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3389/ICCBR_2022_XCBR_Challenge_RGU.pdf
Presentation Conference Type | Conference Paper (published) |
---|---|
Conference Name | Workshops of the 30th International conference on case-based reasoning (ICCBR-WS 2022) |
Start Date | Sep 12, 2022 |
End Date | Sep 15, 2022 |
Acceptance Date | Jul 22, 2022 |
Online Publication Date | May 11, 2023 |
Publication Date | May 11, 2023 |
Deposit Date | Jun 2, 2023 |
Publicly Available Date | Jun 2, 2023 |
Publisher | CEUR-WS |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Pages | 256-260 |
Series Title | CEUR workshop proceedings |
Series Number | 3389 |
Series ISSN | 1613-0073 |
Keywords | LSTM; XCBR; NLG; Integrated gradients; Forecasting; Visualisation |
Public URL | https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1977757 |
Publisher URL | https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3389/ICCBR_2022_XCBR_Challenge_RGU.pdf |
Files
PIRIE 2022 Explainable weather forecasts (VOR v2)
(485 Kb)
PDF
Publisher Licence URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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