Skip to main content

Research Repository

See what's under the surface

Probabilistic modelling of oil rig drilling operations for business decision support: a real world application of Bayesian networks and computational intelligence.

Fournier, François A.

Authors

François A. Fournier



Contributors

John McCall
Supervisor

Andrei Petrovski
Supervisor

Peter Barclay
Supervisor

Abstract

This work investigates the use of evolved Bayesian networks learning algorithms based on computational intelligence meta-heuristic algorithms. These algorithms are applied to a new domain provided by the exclusive data, available to this project from an industry partnership with ODS-Petrodata, a business intelligence company in Aberdeen, Scotland. This research proposes statistical models that serve as a foundation for building a novel operational tool for forecasting the performance of rig drilling operations. A prototype for a tool able to forecast the future performance of a drilling operation is created using the obtained data, the statistical model and the experts' domain knowledge. This work makes the following contributions: applying K2GA and Bayesian networks to a real-world industry problem; developing a well-performing and adaptive solution to forecast oil drilling rig performance; using the knowledge of industry experts to guide the creation of competitive models; creating models able to forecast oil drilling rig performance consistently with nearly 80% forecast accuracy, using either logistic regression or Bayesian network learning using genetic algorithms; introducing the node juxtaposition analysis graph, which allows the visualisation of the frequency of nodes links appearing in a set of orderings, thereby providing new insights when analysing node ordering landscapes; exploring the correlation factors between model score and model predictive accuracy, and showing that the model score does not correlate with the predictive accuracy of the model; exploring a method for feature selection using multiple algorithms and drastically reducing the modelling time by multiple factors; proposing new fixed structure Bayesian network learning algorithms for node ordering search-space exploration. Finally, this work proposes real-world applications for the models based on current industry needs, such as recommender systems, an oil drilling rig selection tool, a user-ready rig performance forecasting software and rig scheduling tools.

Thesis Type Thesis
Institution Citation FOURNIER, F.A. 2013. Probabilistic modelling of oil rig drilling operations for business decision support: a real world application of Bayesian networks and computational intelligence. Robert Gordon University [online], PhD thesis. Available from: https://openair.rgu.ac.uk
Keywords Business intelligence; Oil and gas industry; Bayesian networks; Metaheuristics

Files

FOURNIER 2013 Probabilistic modelling of oil rig drilling (7.1 Mb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright: the author and Robert Gordon University





Downloadable Citations