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Development of predictive optimization model for autonomous rotary drilling system using machine learning approach.

Amadi, Kingsley; Iyalla, Ibiye; Prabhu, Radhakrishna; Alsaba, Mortadha; Waly, Marwa


Mortadha Alsaba

Marwa Waly


The growing global energy demand and strict environmental policies motivate the use of technology and performance improvement techniques in drilling operations. In the traditional drilling method, the effort and time required to optimize drilling depend on the effectiveness of human driller in selecting the optimal set of parameters to improve system performance. Although existing work has identified the significance of upscaling from manual drilling to autonomous drilling system, little has been done to support this transition. In this paper, predictive optimization model is proposed for autonomous drilling systems. To evaluate optimized operating procedure, a comparative study of surface operating parameters using weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM) versus drilling mechanical specific energy (DMSE), and feed thrust (FET) is presented. The study used a data-driven approach that uses offset drilling data with machine learning model in finding a pair of input operating variables that serves as best tuning parameters for the topdrive and drawwork system. The results illustrate that derived variables (DMSE, FET) gave higher prediction accuracy with correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.985, root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.6 and average absolute percentage error (AAPE) of 34, whilst using the surface operating parameters (WOB, RPM) delivered an R2, RMSE and AAPE of 0.74, 28 and 106, respectively. Although previous researches have predicted ROP using ANN, this research considered the selection of tuning control variables and using it in predicting the system ROP for an autonomous system. The model output offers parameter optimization and adaptative control of autonomous drilling system.


AMADI, K., IYALLA, I., PRABHU, R., ALSABA, M. and WALY, M. 2023. Development of predictive optimization model for autonomous rotary drilling system using machine learning approach. Journal of petroleum exploration and production technology [online], 13(10), pages 2049-2062. Available from:

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 19, 2023
Online Publication Date Jun 16, 2023
Publication Date Oct 1, 2023
Deposit Date Jun 19, 2023
Publicly Available Date Jun 19, 2023
Journal Journal of petroleum exploration and production technology
Print ISSN 2190-0558
Electronic ISSN 2190-0566
Publisher Springer
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 13
Issue 10
Pages 2049-2062
Keywords Autonomous drilling systems; Penetration rate prediction; Artificial neural networks; Machine learning
Public URL


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