Hybrid analytical hierarchy process model for the optimisation of marginal field development in Nigeria.

Danmadami, Amina Mohammed

Abstract

The slow pace of marginal field development in Nigeria poses a critical challenge to the nation's energy security and economic stability, given the reliance on oil and gas revenues. This stagnation stems from the lack of a systematic decision-making framework to address uncertainties in planning and evaluate strategic options against multifaceted objectives. Traditional approaches, focused primarily on financial metrics, fail to capture the complexity of marginal field development, resulting in suboptimal decisions and missed opportunities. To address this gap, this research introduces a hybrid analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model integrated with the weighted sum method (WSM), screening and economic modelling. The model prioritizes key criteria - cost; health, safety and environment (HSE); regulation; security; stakeholders; and technology - while screening ensures feasibility and WSM evaluates alternatives against benchmarks. This comprehensive approach enhances the model's robustness and adaptability to Nigeria's unique challenges. A case study of a shallow offshore field highlights the effectiveness of the hybrid AHP model in optimizing marginal field development. The analysis identified tieback development as the most cost-effective, regulatory-compliant and reliable option. In comparison, cluster development emerged as the second-best choice, with a 9.6% increase in cost relative to the tieback option. Partial standalone development showed a 17.8% increase in cost compared to tieback. Full standalone development was identified as the least cost-effective option, with a 24.4% increase in cost compared to tieback. Validation through analysis of producing fields showed an 88% accuracy rate, confirming the model's practicality and alignment with industry requirements. The research underscores the strategic potential of marginal fields to add 200,000 barrels of oil per day to Nigeria's output, bolstering economic growth and energy security. By providing a structured and reliable framework, this study equips stakeholders with the tools to make informed, sustainable and efficient decisions for the optimisation marginal field development.

Citation

DANMADAMI, A.M. 2024. Hybrid analytical hierarchy process model for the optimisation of marginal field development in Nigeria. Robert Gordon University, PhD thesis. Hosted on OpenAIR [online]. Available from: https://doi.org/10.48526/rgu-wt-2795516

• Thesis Type: Thesis
• Deposit Date: Apr 17, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 17, 2025
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.48526/rgu-wt-2795516
• Keywords: Oil field development; Marginal oil fields; Multicriteria decision-making; Nigeria
• Public URL: https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/2795516
• Award Date: Nov 30, 2024