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The system dynamics analysis of cost overrun causations in UK rail projects in a COVID-19 epidemic era.

Omotayo, Temitope Seun; Awuzie, Bankole; Obi, Valerie Kenechukwu; Ajayi, Saheed; Obi, Lovelin Ifeoma; Osobajo, Oluyomi; Oke, Adekunle


Temitope Seun Omotayo

Bankole Awuzie

Valerie Kenechukwu Obi

Saheed Ajayi

Lovelin Ifeoma Obi

Adekunle Oke


Cost overrun is a global issue plaguing transportation infrastructure projects, and the rail industry in the United Kingdom is not exempted. This industry plays a significant role in stimulating the country's economic development and growth in the United Kingdom (UK). Understanding the factors contributing to cost overruns in rail projects is viable to sustain its contribution, especially in the COVID-19 epidemic era. This study analyzed and predicted the impact of cost overruns on rail projects in the UK in a COVID-19 pandemic era through a sparse network and system dynamics approach. It leverages a review of existing literature and perceptions of 80 construction professionals purposively to establish the factors affecting cost overruns affecting the UK rail construction sector. Findings reveal a web of causations that highlights labor productivity, delay in the supply of construction materials and equipment, and access to the site as fundamental predictors of cost overruns during a COVID-19 pandemic era. The resulting findings are beneficial to assist project managers with the needed awareness to strategically plan and mitigate the potential rise in cost overruns of rail projects in the UK during the pandemic.


OMOTAYO, T.S., AWUZIE, B., OBI, V.K., AJAYI, S., OBI, L.I., OSOBAJO, O. and OKE, A. 2022. The system dynamics analysis of cost overrun causations in UK rail projects in a COVID-19 epidemic era. SAGE open [online], 12(2). Available from:

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 20, 2022
Online Publication Date May 20, 2022
Publication Date Apr 1, 2022
Deposit Date May 23, 2022
Publicly Available Date May 23, 2022
Journal SAGE open
Print ISSN 2158-2440
Electronic ISSN 2158-2440
Publisher SAGE Publications
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 12
Issue 2
Keywords Rail industry; Rail construction projects; Project management; Project financing; Cost overruns; United Kingdom; COVID-19
Public URL


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