Interpreting magnitude of change in strength and conditioning: effect size selection, threshold values and Bayesian updating.

Swinton, Paul Alan; Burgess, Katherine; Hall, Andy; Greig, Leon; Psyllas, John; Aspe, Rodrigo; Maughan, Patrick; Murphy, Andrew

Abstract

The magnitude of change following strength and conditioning (S&C) training can be evaluated comparing effect sizes to threshold values. This study conducted a series of meta-analyses and compiled results to identify thresholds specific to S&C, and create prior distributions for Bayesian updating. Pre- and post-training data from S&C interventions were translated into standardised mean difference (SMDpre) and percentage improvement (%Improve) effect sizes. Four-level Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis models were conducted to compare effect sizes, develop prior distributions, and estimate 0.25-, 0.5-, and 0.75-quantiles to determine small, medium, and large thresholds respectively. Data from 643 studies comprising 6574 effect sizes were included in the analyses. Large differences in distributions for both SMDpre and %Improve were identified across outcome domains (strength, power, jump and sprint performance), with analyses of the tails of the distributions indicating potential large overestimations of SMDpre values. Future evaluations of S&C training will be improved using Bayesian approaches featuring the information and priors developed in this study. To facilitate an uptake of Bayesian methods within S&C, an easily accessible tool employing intuitive Bayesian updating was created. It is recommended that the tool and specific thresholds be used instead of isolated effect size calculations and Cohen's generic values when evaluating S&C training.

Citation

SWINTON, P.A., BURGESS, K., HALL, A., GREIG, L., PSYLLAS, J., ASPE, R., MAUGHAN, P. and MURPHY, A. 2022. Interpreting magnitude of change in strength and conditioning: effect size selection, threshold values and Bayesian updating. Journal of sports sciences [online], 40(18), pages 2047-2054. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2022.2128548

• Journal Article Type: Review
• Acceptance Date: Sep 21, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Oct 2, 2022
• Publication Date: Dec 31, 2022
• Deposit Date: Sep 23, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 23, 2022
• Journal: Journal of sports sciences
• Print ISSN: 0264-0414
• Electronic ISSN: 1466-447X
• Publisher: Taylor and Francis
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 40
• Issue: 18
• Pages: 2047-2054
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2022.2128548
• Keywords: Athletic performance; Muscular strength training; Effect size; Power; Prior; Strength and conditioning (S&C)
• Public URL: https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1760388
• Related Public URLs: https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1760402 (Supplementary Data)